For the first time since the aerospace giants Airbus and Boeing established near-total dominance of the single-aisle jet market with the iconic A320 and B737 airliners, they are bracing for a fight. A clutch of competing companies are getting ready to take on the big two.
A big battle may be brewing in the skies. For the first time since the aerospace giants Airbus and Boeing established near-total dominance of the singleaisle jet market with the iconic A320 and B737 airliners, they are bracing for a fight. A clutch of competing companies are getting ready to take on the big two, with Bombardier of Canada leading the pack. And it has a potential game changer in its arsenal—the CSeries jetliner.
Why is the single-aisle market so important? In July, Boeing in its 20-year current market outlook (CMO) predicted demand between 2010 and 2029 for 30,900 new aircraft worth $3.6 trillion (Rs. 1,69,13,881 crore). Of these, over two-thirds—or 21,160 airliners—will be single-aisle (narrow-bodies). Airbus’ own assessment was more modest but still impressive. Last year, Airbus had forecast that almost 17,000 new narrow-bodies (about 70 per cent of total sales) would be delivered over the next 20 years. The reason for the optimism of the manufacturers is not far to seek. Single-aisle aircraft are the planes of choice of the low-cost carriers (LCC), and the LCC’s operating philosophy having tasted success over the last few years is spreading like wildfire across the globe. There is also the accelerating demand for narrow-bodies in Asia, especially from China and India. India’s leading LCCs—IndiGo, SpiceJet and GoAir—are reportedly planning to nearly double their fleet capacity over the next year and a half or so. All their additional aircraft will be single-aisle models.
Bombardier is planning the first flight of the new CSeries in 2012 and entry into service in 2013. It is offering the aircraft in two versions—the 100- to 125-seat CS100 and the 120- to 149-seat CS300. In July, it forecast that airlines worldwide would purchase 6,700 planes in the 100 to 149 seat class during the next 20 years with the unstated hope that the CSeries would corner a significant share of sales. Some analysts believe that sooner or later the company will be tempted to graduate to the 150-plus seat category. This would constitute a direct assault on the Airbus and Boeing narrow-body bastions. Will Bombardier dare, or won’t it? The company itself dismisses such speculation saying, “We already have a whole bunch on our plate.”
Hope and Confidence
Hopeful of reaching design freeze on the CSeries, Bombardier says it is fully confident that the aircraft will perform as advertised. The company already has 90 firm orders from Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Ireland’s Lease Corporation. International and US-based Republic Airways. The Republic’s recent order for 40 aircraft seems to have made Airbus and Boeing sit up. Suddenly, there is animated discussion about re-engining the A320 and B737NG. Bombardier has a further 90 options for the CSeries. But that is nowhere near the number of orders it eventually needs to make the new plane profitable. It is also in negotiations with about 65 airlines and aircraft leasing companies worldwide. Some aerospace consultants are sceptical about Bombardier’s ability to meet the ambitious 2013 target for a programme which has both cutting-edge technologies and distant suppliers. They state that the excruciating delays in the development of the Airbus A380 and Boeing B787 jets due to supplier hassles and technical glitches. They ask, why should the Bombardier experience be any different? Bombardier says it has a long experience of using a global supply chain and insists the CSeries development schedule is realistic.
Although the risk of producing an all-new aircraft is great, the rewards are potentially much greater. The CSeries is currently the only modern aircraft specifically designed for the 100- to 149-seat market. Bombardier claims it will be a joy to environmentalists, emitting 20 per cent less CO2 and 50 per cent less NOx, while flying four times quieter than current comparable aircraft. Its carbon-fibre wing already meets the planned weight objectives. It has been performing rather well in testing, giving rise to hopes that there could be opportunities for further weight reduction. The company claims that the wing, engine and landing gear combination is optimised to obtain the maximum benefit of the ultra-high 12:1 bypass ratio of the engine.
Pure and Powerful
Indeed, a striking feature of the CSeries is its all-new engine. Pratt & Whitney (P&W) specifically developed the PurePower 1000G Geared TurboFan (GTF) for Bombardier. The engine will be under optimisation for the next six months, and type certification is scheduled to start early next year. This advanced engine is projected to cut Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC) by 20 per cent, constituting the largest slice of the 15 per cent reduction in operating costs that Bombardier claims for the CSeries.
How will the PurePower 1000G achieve its drastic drop in SFC? Thanks to a specially designed 3:1 reduction gearbox located aft of the fan, the LP compressor and LP turbine can spin at the higher speeds required for optimal performance. At the same time, the fan can turn at the lower speeds it prefers, which reduces the fan pressure ratio, allowing more air to flow through the bypass and keeping the blade tip velocities below Mach 1.0 for reduced drag and noise. All in all, the engine has fewer parts and operates at lower temperatures. P&W claims that its new baby will be quieter and cleaner than anything currently on offer. It predicts 20 per cent lower maintenance costs over current engines though a rival characterises this claim as outrageous. The new engine partially offsets the weight penalty of a larger bypass by using advanced lightweight materials for the fan blades and other components. However, competitors are quick to point out that its gearing system and associated oil cooling equipment make it more complex than other turbofan engines, potentially rendering it more prone to failure.
