Dreamliner - High Potential

By the end of 2013, Boeing will manufacture 10 787 Dreamliners every month, i.e. 120 airplanes a year, declared Dr Dinesh Keskar, President Boeing India. He informed that three 787 Dreamliners are ready for delivery to Air India; required clearances have been taken from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA); and 64 pilots of Air India have already been trained on the aircraft. Later on September 8, Air India’s first Dreamliner arrived in India.

Buoyant as always about the Indian market, Keskar described India as the “big gorilla” and the “shining star” while releasing the Boeing 2012 India Market Outlook on September 4. “India has huge potential. We say that every year and it’s not different this time. By 2021 India’s economy will be the fifth largest in the world, and by 2031 the fourth largest, and so we are bullish.”

He said that India’s commercial aviation fleet is likely to grow by 4.5 times in size in the next 20 years. “India’s airlines have experienced rapid traffic and capacity growth since 2001. Despite the challenges, India will continue to have one of the strongest, vibrant aviation markets in the world.”

Stating that India is projected to have the highest passenger traffic growth in the world, Keskar forecasts that India’s airlines will take deliveries of 1,450 airplanes valued at about $175 billion ( Rs. 9,62,500 crore) in the next two decades. And globally, with increasing orders from India, China and other emerging markets; the company projects a $4.5 trillion ( Rs. 2,47,50,000 crore) market for 34,000 airplanes over the next 20 years. “South Asia will experience highest traffic growth in the world at 8.4 per cent.”

Boeing predicts that over 60 million passengers will fly within India this year. In 2012-13, India will take delivery of 1,201 single-aisle aircraft valued at $114 billion ( Rs. 6,27,000 crore), 234 twin-aisle at $61 billion ( Rs. 3,35,500 crore) and 15 regional jets valued at $0.5 billion ( Rs. 2,750 crore). “Airlines in India are improving their financial performances due to improved yields and improved capacity management, although the slowing GDP growth, high fuel prices and a week rupee would affect growth in near term.” He said that high fuel prices and exchange rates have affected the aviation market and the overall traffic growth has become negative, but it has only “dampened and not decreased”. Domestic services have increased dramatically over the last two decades and liberalisation has had a huge impact on airlines in India and their fleet. “Single-aisle airplanes such as the Next-Generation 737 and the 737 MAX are in big demand from airlines in India.”

The company which currently leads India’s wide body longhaul international fleet with the 777s and 747s; deems that with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner joining the fleets of Air India and Jet Airways, the leadership will advance further. “We believe that passengers will continue to prefer more flight choices, lower fares, and direct access to a wider range of destinations and the air carriers in India will continue to offer more flights using more efficient airplanes, rather than using significantly larger airplanes,” said Keskar.

“Air India can deploy the Dreamliners on many routes including the Middle East, Europe, Asia and Australia at a significantly lower operating cost. ”

On being asked by Jayant Baranwal, Editor-in-Chief, SP’s AirBuz, whether Boeing is worried about the Air India orders keeping the financial state of the airlines in the mind, he said that concerns are there, but the Dreamliner is the right airplane for Air India and will be a key for change. Besides Air India, Jet Airways too has placed order for 10 787 Dreamliners. “There are not many orders from private airlines for the 787s yet, but Jet Airways only say that by the end of next year, the company will manufacture 10 Dreamliners a month.

He said that there are 824 orders from 58 countries for the 787s and 19 aircraft have already entered service with four airlines. Since October 2011, the 787 has flown more than 6,000 flights and has carried 1.5 million passengers across the world. “We have received unprecedented customer response.” According to the company, use of composite materials makes the 787s resistant to corrosion and less scheduled maintenance; the next-generation engines lower fuel consumption and emissions; advanced aerodynamics gives it Mach 0.85 cruise speed and increases fuel efficiency; and innovative system lowers life-cycle costs and makes it easier to maintain and update.”