Airbus forecasts 32,600 new planes in two decades

• Aircraft worth $4.9 trillion
• Emerging economies to propel aviation market
• 0.9 million passengers per day to 2.3 million passengers per day by 2034

Airbus has forecast that in the 20 years (2015-34), global passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.6 per cent a year, driving a need for some 32,600 new aircraft above 100 seats (31,800 passenger and 800 freighters greater than 10 tonnes) worth $4.9 trillion.

Releasing the Airbus’ Global Market forecast, John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers, said passenger and freighter fleets will more than double from today’s 19,000 aircraft to 38,500. Some 13,100 passenger and freighter aircraft will be replaced with more fuel-efficient types. “Asia-Pacific will lead in world traffic by 2034 and China will be the world’s biggest aviation market within 10 years, and clearly Asia and emerging markets are the catalyst for strong air traffic growth.” Responding to a question on whether the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing would be broken, Leahy said that in 20 years time, the Chinese would be dominating with their aircraft. He jokingly said by that time he would have retired.

Emerging economies, driving force

Emerging economies which collectively account for six billion people are the real engines of worldwide traffic growth. They will grow at 5.8 per cent per year compared to more advanced economies, like those in Western Europe or Northern America, that are forecast to grow collectively at 3.8 per cent. Emerging economies also account for 31 per cent of worldwide private consumption which will rise to 43 per cent by 2034. Economic growth rates in emerging economies such as China, India, Middle East, Africa and Latin America will exceed the world average. A knock on effect is that middle classes will double to almost five billion people.

The tendency to travel by air is increasing. In today’s emerging economies, 25 per cent of the population take one trip per year, and this will increase sharply to 74 per cent by 2034. In advanced economies, such as North America, the tendency to travel will exceed two trips per year.

Airbus ramping up production

Considering such growth levels, Leahy said Airbus is ramping up production of the A350 XWB and that Airbus is studying further production rate increases beyond rate 50 for single-aisle aircraft to meet the increasing demand for air transportation.

Giving further details, he said that long-haul traffic will increasingly be to, from or between aviation mega cities, rising from 90 per cent (0.9 million passengers a day) today to 95 per cent (2.3 million passengers a day) by 2034. Aviation mega cities are centres of urbanisation and wealth creation and will increase from 47 to 91 cities by 2034 with 35 per cent of world GDP centred there. These mega cities are already served well by air transportation and the existing route network will accommodate 70 per cent of all traffic growth between now and 2034.

In the widebody market, Airbus forecasts a trend towards higher capacity aircraft on long haul and an increasingly wide range of regional and domestic sectors. As a result, Airbus forecasts a requirement of 9,600 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at $2.7 trillion. This represents 30 per cent of all new aircraft deliveries and 55 per cent by value. Airbus will be especially well placed to win a leading share of the widebody market, with A330, A350 and A380 representing the most modern and comprehensive product line available today from 200 to over 500 seats.