Emerging Competitors

Regional airlines are beginning to exhibit a marked appetite for bigger planes, both jet and turboprop, to reduce per-seat operating costs. The dividing line between narrow-body and regional jets continues to blur.

Once upon a time, regional jets were an undersized 30- to 50-seat affair, predominantly frequenting short-haul routes. Their role was to ferry small groups of passengers from remote airports to major hubs from where larger airliners operated to distant destinations. Regional jets gradually grew in size and an upper limit of 99 seats came to be accepted. Strangely enough, there has never been a wildly successful commercial jet in the range of 100- to 149-seat. Until now, that is.

Regional airlines are beginning to exhibit a marked appetite for bigger planes, both jet and turboprop, to reduce per-seat operating costs. And a handful of manufacturers are striving to produce such aircraft. This will, in a sense, give them the best of both worlds. While they hope to trump the current regional jet champions who only offer smaller aircraft, they could soon be snapping at the heels of the big two, Airbus and Boeing, who have a virtual duopoly for narrow-body jets of 150 seats and above. The Airbus A320 and Boeing B737 account for about half of all commercial jets today. And the dividing line between narrow-body and regional jets continues to blur.

In June, Embraer raised its global forecast for regional jets to 7,225 in the 30- to120-seat segment over the next 20 years. Meanwhile, Bombardier is even more confident that there will be demand for new, larger, more fuel-efficient jets, and sees a need for 13,000 aircraft in the under 149-seat market over the same period. No doubt, Bombardier and Embraer rank third and fourth in global commercial aircraft sales respectively and hope that Boeing and Airbus will steer clear of the below150-seat market, allowing them to continue to dominate this segment. But they face emerging competition from Russia, China and Japan pursuing regionaljet programmes of a capacity of up to 70- to 100-seats and above.

The Russian Sukhoi Superjet SSJ100-95 that entered service earlier this year, is a modern, fly-by-wire, regional twin-jet capable of carrying 75 to 98 passengers up to a range of 4,400 kilometres. It may eventually get a larger variant with up to 130 seats, but not before it loses some weight. While ARJ21 from China’s Commercial Aircraft Corporation (Comac), is expected to enter service in 2012, Japan’s Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) deliveries are expected to begin in the first quarter of 2014. Embraer is also committed to announcing its next aircraft development programme most likely in the 120-200 seat range, by the end of the year. And Bombardier could finally prevail with its futuristic CSeries siblings that are expected to enter service by 2013. Isn’t the market crowded?

The Chinese Check-in

Claimed to be the first Chinese indigenous passenger jet, the twin-engine ARJ21 is being built on tooling from McDonnell Douglas for licence production of the MD-90. The ambitious programme is supported by aerospace majors like General Electric, Honeywell and Rockwell Collins. China expects to commission several new airports in smaller cities over the next decade or two thus expanding the demand for regional jets. With a range of 3,700 km, the aircraft is designed to cope with diverse and demanding environments, including the hot-and-high conditions of Western China. Fitted with General Electric CF34-10A engines (17,057 lb thrust) it has powerful takeoff and climb performance that facilitates operation from short runways. While the ARJ21-700 baseline model will have a capacity of 78- to 90-seats, the stretched ARJ21-900 will carry 98 to 105 passengers. Comac has secured 206 orders till date, mainly from the domestic market. However, the ARJ21 has been plagued by delays stretching to over four years. Launch customer Chengdu Airlines is expected to receive its first ARJ21-700 aircraft next year.

Mitsubishi Magic

Manufactured by Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation, a partnership between Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Toyota Motor Corporation, the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) will be the first indigenous airliner of Japanese design and production since 1960. Four versions including two freighters are planned using different fuselage lengths. The aircraft was initially claimed to be the first regional jet to adopt composites on a significant scale. However, Mitsubishi later decided to use aluminium for its wing box so as to allow a shorter lead-time for structural changes. The company believes this will maximise the performance of all MRJ. Composites now comprise just 10 to 15 per cent of the aircraft. The twin-jet MRJ70 will be fitted with Pratt & Whitney’s new fuel-efficient PW1217G Geared Turbofan (GTF) engines with 15,600 lb thrust, while its larger sibling, the MRJ 90, will have the same engines rated at 17,600 lb.

The 86- to 96-seat MRJ90 is expected to enter airline service in the first quarter of 2014, with the 70- to 80-seat MRJ70 following perhaps a year later. The official launch of the proposed 100-seat MRJ100X stretched version may have to wait until after the first flight of the MRJ90 expected middle of next year. Still lacking a customer, the larger aircraft is unlikely to reach the market before 2016 or 2017. Mitsubishi Aircraft has received 130 orders so far, including 15 MRJ90s from its launch customer All Nippon Airways. But it needs to produce at least 350 to 400 units to recoup the development costs.