China Roadmaps Aviation Recovery for the Global Industry

Just how China was the first to experience the spread of novel coronavirus that brought the world to a standstill, the country also seems to be among the first ones to show distinct and continuous signs of recovery in the civil aviation sector.

According to a report released by VariFlight, a China-based civil aviation data service provider, Chinese airports handled a total of 3,75,300 outbound flights last month, down 6.86 per cent compared to the previous year, but up 1.6 per cent month on month. The report also shows that the number of domestic flights rose year on year in September, while the number of international flights increased slightly compared to August.

Travel analytics company ForwardKeys had predicted domestic air travel to fully recover in China by September, making it the first aviation market anywhere in the world to reach pre-pandemic levels.

ForwardKeys had predicted that domestic air travel in China, which had been recovering progressively in the view of the Covid-19 outbreak, will reach a full recovery by the start of September. This was done in the wake of domestic arrivals at Chinese airports reaching 86 per cent of 2019 levels in the second week of August, while bookings (issued air tickets) hitting 98 per cent, with most being for travel in mid to late August.

The ForwardKeys forecast of a full recovery was based on four factors.

• First, the pandemic was under control.
• Second, domestic aviation seat capacity was set to grow by 5.7 per cent in the last week of August, when compared to the same period in last year – and when airlines make seats available, they tend to fill them by flexing fares.
• Third, many schools and university students were travelling ahead of the start of term in September.
• Finally, aggressive price promotions have greatly stimulated demand.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) Airlines reported China’s airlines have handled 1904 international commercial frequencies since June-2020, and 587 temporary frequencies and weekly commercial frequencies had increased 105 per cent compared to early June-2020. Since August-2020, China’s daily frequencies and seats have exceeded 13,300 and 2.2 million, respectively, which is close to 80 per cent of 2019 levels. The agency had stated that China daily air seats recovered to 80 per cent of 2019 levels in August-2020.

By the end of August, daily average flights handled by China’s civil aviation industry had come in at 13,000, around 90 per cent compared with the volume before the pandemic outbreak.

Meanwhile, the country’s daily air passenger volume reached 1.6 million, about 80 per cent of the volume in the same period last year and its domestic routes saw the passenger volume recover to around 90 per cent compared with last year.

CAPA, Centre for Aviation had also remarked that the China domestic capacity is expected to continue trending above 2019 levels.

Flightradar24, a global flight tracking service that provides real-time information about thousands of flights, airlines, airports around the world, noted three phases as some learnings that other countries can learn from the evolution of the Chinese aviation market.

• Following the sharp decline in traffic to just 20 per cent of previous levels, the first phase of the recovery in China saw a steep boost in domestic flights back to 40 per cent as essential connectivity was re-established. The recovery remained at this level as international traffic remained suppressed and ongoing travel restrictions greatly limited demand.
• Then when the quarantine in Wuhan was lifted in April, the number of flights started to gradually increase as people were able to travel again. The domestic traffic recovered at a steady pace of ~10 per cent per month, with the Low Cost Carriers (LCC) recovering swiftly. By May, Spring (the largest Chinese LCC) was already flying over 100 per cent of flights on a Year-on-Year (YoY) comparison. Leading up to the Labour Day celebrations, international traffic made a small revival. Government intervention was also put in place to support international connectivity through this period. However, this revival was short-lived as Beijing saw a COVID-19 flare-up in mid-June, and a number of travel restrictions were put in place.
• In the third phase, beginning in July, the domestic flights began to increase again, probably due to the relaxation of the Beijing restrictions and the start of the summer school holidays. Domestic flights thereby increased by 36 per cent from July 1st to August 31st, while international flights remained at the same level.

GOLDEN WEEK GLOW

A HSBC report released early September had pointed out that the ‘Golden Week’ holiday in October was “likely to stimulate domestic travel demand,” noting that several airports in Mainland China had already recorded month-on-month increases in flight movements to meet travel demand at that time. And the Golden Week (a seven-day holiday period in China beginning from October 1 to October 7 marking the National Day i.e. the founding day of the People’s Republic of China) indeed brought a bright ray of recovery with it for China’s domestic airline industry.

CAAC however also mentioned that the average daily passenger figure is about nine per cent lower compared to the same period a year ago. Average daily flights mounted fell about 10 per cent compared to 2019’s Golden Week holidays, but given the unprecedented scenario this year, it is a huge growth sign that Chinese carriers mounted over 1,17,000 flights during the Golden Week, a large majority being the domestic flights. CAAC data for the period also shows that on 30 September, a day before the week-long holiday began, Chinese carriers operated 15,000 flights, carrying more than 1.7 million passengers across the country.

“In some major tourist cities, the number of inbound and outbound passenger bookings and the passenger load factor have approached or reached the same period last year, indicating that travel demand for domestic tourism has recovered significantly,” the CAAC states.

DOMESTIC TRAVEL & PASSENGER CONFIDENCE

Ever since China stated control over the pandemic, it has doubled down on domestic tourism recovery efforts. Carriers such as China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines have been giving out steep discounts and unlimited travel passes to domestic travelers that allow travellers to fly as often as they like for a set period. The lowering of price has been a major attraction for passengers along with the country’s success in mitigating the spread of the virus that has helped in gaining passengers confidence.

However, analysts have pointed out that any pricing strategy will only work if consumers have enough confidence to fly, bringing to notice that New Zealand and Vietnam (both coronavirus mitigation success stories) had had strong domestic airline activity, only to witness capacity levels dropping after new outbreaks.

China is one of the first regions to recover for Airbus, the manufacturer stated, also mentioning that it expects China to retain status as largest single country market

A large portion of the increase in passenger traffic is being attributed to the heavy discounts provided by carriers, as a means to rebuild domestic travel demand. HSBC researchers say the country’s shift toward local tourism will “further fuel the recovery in domestic traffic and load factors”. Industry watchers further state that while capacity and passenger traffic will be the first to recover, profitability will take some time to do so.

The HSBC research report stated that the Chinese carriers will now shift their focus on improving yields, especially from next month, after experiencing a strong domestic recovery. Nevertheless, it hailed it as a “significant” milestone since the start of the outbreak early this year, as a major market in the world has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Data shared by three of China’s largest carriers – Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines – revealed a similar trend of gradual growth in passenger numbers, as well as Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs) and Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs).

CAPA stated the following favourable conditions for the Chinese air transport industry that could see China be “the first to rebound” as outlined by China Southern Airlines:

• China’s aviation market will take the lead in recovery, due to “ample potential, strong resilience, and large manoeuvre room.”
• There is strong potential demand for passenger travel, with China’s demand for consumption expected to be “released” if the pandemic is effectively controlled.
• There is strong policy support from China’s Government in the form of reduced taxes and fees, including the exemption of annual civil aviation development funds.

GOVERNMENT SUPPORT

There is strong policy support from China’s Government in the form of reduced taxes and fees, including the exemption of annual civil aviation development funds which has been a major helping hand in the industry’s success. CAPA also noted that the Government support helped to ‘oil the wheels’ of China’s recovery.

In July, China moved to allow travel agencies to operate group tours across provincial borders. China’s culture and tourism ministry also eased restrictions on tourist attractions, allowing them to operate at 50 per cent of their capacity, raising the limit from 30 per cent imposed in April.

The government’s effective epidemic control measures and supportive policies also aided the country’s air passenger and air cargo sectors both of which are gradually recovering.

GENERATING OPPORTUNITIES

In the United States and Europe where COVID-19 case numbers are much higher, airlines are still slashing their forward schedules and business travel remains at anaemic levels, according to data from Official Airline Guide (OAG).

In contrast, Chinese capacity has snapped back to more than 90 per cent of pre-pandemic levels due in part to a summer travel boom, OAG states and it is expected to recover to last year’s levels by the end of 2020, according to industry forecasts.

China’s recovering civil aviation industry is not only providing a model for others to follow but is also generating new opportunities for global players amid the country’s resilient economy and push for wider opening-up.

Leading the global air traffic recovery, China’s reviving civil aviation industry is fostering new business opportunities for the global market and industry players.

Amid challenging times of the global civil aviation sector, industry players around the world are paying close attention to China’s wider opening-up and large market.

China is one of the first regions to recover for Airbus, the manufacturer stated, also mentioning that it expects China to retain status as largest single country market. CAPA too remarked that China has staged a remarkable recovery, emerging from COVID.

“China is the second-largest overseas market of Air France KLM and the largest in Asia. We are delighted and honored to resume our passenger flights to China, which marks a big step in rebuilding our global network,” said Toon Balm, general manager of Air France KLM Greater China.

Air France KLM has been playing its role in bridging the air cargo between China and Europe to ensure efficient transportation of vital supplies and maintain the global supply chain.

Boeing has launched the Confident Travel Initiative to develop new solutions that could minimise health risks associated with air travel and raise more safety awareness amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The US plane-maker has joined hands with Chinese airlines to provide technical support for safely ensuring disinfection works.

China is expected to maintain the momentum of a steady recovery in the second half of the year. The IMF forecasted China to achieve what could be the sole positive annual GDP reading among major economies.